CHANGE

I once heard it said that the only constant in change. It's true. Lots of things keep changing. People come and go; seasons wax and wane; heat, rain, snow, and cold surround us at different times.

Another change is going to happen, here.

I've decided to use this blog more than I have in the recent past.

I'm going to post some ideas from long ago and not so long ago.

Every Tuesday and Friday, I'll have something, starting later this month. As in next week. Perhaps.

On Mondays and Thursdays, there'll be something new on my other major blog, Chrome on the Range, to which I've already introduced you (below).

Hope to see you at both places.

Please Bear with me during this period of reconstruction.

MOSQUE AT "GROUND ZERO," USA.

Well, this is going to be long. Longer than usual. And in several parts.

(BTW, you can blame Da Blog Fodder for this; he put me up to it. Mind you, he's been active in posting, and sharing other information, about this pending development. As have his readers. If you go over to his blog and look about, you'll find lots of things to consider. Much of it centres around his "Of Mosque and Men." OK — credit given where credit it due.)

As there has been a huge amount of mis-information floating around about this proposal of a mosque a few blocks from "Ground Zero" — the site of the old World Trade Center in New York.

I want to start by putting out as much correct data as I can. To that end, I begin with the observations of a blog friend from New York, who has worked on Wall Street.

The proposed mosque would be part of a building housing various areas relating to Islam, and also some recreational areas, including a swimming pool. The location is not at "ground zero," but several blocks away.

There are to be all sorts of commemorative areas at, or closer to, ground zero.

The area of the proposed mosque and cultural center now houses a variety of enterprizes, including bars, discount electronic shops, and shops specializing in pornography.

I used to work in a big office building a short block away from the Twin Towers back in the late 1970's and early '80s. That part of Wall Street has always been a strange architectural mix of very, very old New York buildings, varying eras' attempts to be modern, and many humdrum bits of ugliness.

It houses gleaming offices where capitalism reigns, churches, pizza shops, tourist souvenir stalls and shops, discount clothing stores...even luxurious lofts created out of discarded old buildings. Most of the wealth is well-hidden. On the street level, it's a bit of a honky-tonk place, where everything moves pretty quickly.

News stories that say that the proposed mosque is to be built on the site of the Twin Towers are incorrect.

There are a number of parks in the area, some located on the nearby river side...great places to sit and catch some fresh breezes, and perhaps think peaceful thoughts.

That, from New York.

The larger issue is the amount of furor this has created in the U.S., and (to some extent) elsewhere. Much of that upset has focused on how westerners understand Islam, and how westerners are being encouraged to see Islam. That is the issue which I find most concerning.

As a bit of historical background, Judaism, Christianity, and Islam all share a common background, and are collectively known as the "People of the Book." That is an important consideration.

I want to try to put in some information about Islam. And I want to try to look at how Islam is being portrayed  in North America, particularly the US.

I'm not claiming in any of these comments that I perfectly understand all these things. I don't. But I know enough to be able to ask questions, to encourage thought — which is all I'm trying to do.

NEW FLU STICKS; STILL LEVEL SIX, AND . . .

While you were sleeping, the Bear was watching. Not saying, just watching.

Now, time to talk.

Over the last two days, the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported almost 13,000 new cases of a/H1N1 Influenza, and 50 more deaths. That's in just two days. Total recorded infections world-wide are about 90,000, with 382 deaths.

If we're at 6,500 new cases a day right now, we could well see 10,000 new cases a day by August or September.

But there is good news. It came at a meeting of officials from Canada, Mexico and the U.S., held in Cancun, Mexico on July 2nd. The speaker was Dr. Margaret Chan, Director-General of the WHO. Here are some excerpts from her speech.

• "We have seen some social disruption, especially when schools and camps have to close, bringing added demands on parents and their employers. Most health systems have coped well, though some have reported some strains on staff, hospital beds, laboratories and resources."

• "The overwhelming majority of patients experience mild symptoms and make a full recovery within a week, often in the absence of any form of medical treatment." (Emphasis mine.)

If you want more information, Dr. Chan's speech is available on the WHO web site. It is worth the read, if you're interested in keeping up on the details -- which could save your life.

NEW FLU STICKS; NOW LEVEL SIX

Finally. The World Health Organization (WHO) has gotten around to declaring what everyone else knew for weeks. We have a real, true, honest, full-blown pandemic with A/H1N1 influenza. The disease can be passed easily from person to person. About 29,000 confirmed cases world-wide, with 144 deaths. The disease has spread to multiple countries in every continent (including Australia, a country that thinks of itself as a continent). That's "Level 6" in WHO language. It doesn't get any worse. Technically.

That "technically" is significant. The Level 6 declaration recognizes the extent to which the disease has spread geographically, not the severity of the situation (which is the more important issue). In Canada, where we could have 3,000 to 4,000 deaths in a "normal" 'flu season, we've had FOUR deaths attributed to A/H1N1 (this latest monster 'flu). Four deaths; not four thousand.

So, wash your hands when you get home from being wherever. Wash before meals. Sneeze into your elbow. Etc.

I'm not suggesting we should ignore the problem. I am suggesting, as usual, that we keep the whole thing in its appropriate context. "Let's be careful out there," continues to be the appropriate phrase.

One other thought. One way to possibly curb the spread of this illness: wash your hands before you send an e-mail or blog post. You can trust the Bear on that. ;)

KEEPING TABS ON THE SWINE THAT 'FLU

I was at a meeting of our health region's ethics committee this week, and guess what got mentioned? Yup; A/H1N1 Influenza.

I raised with my colleagues the potential problem with the World Health Organization's mathematical model of influenza prediction. One of my colleagues, a physician (who shall remain nameless), said perhaps the mathematical model is "only for pandemics that count." At which we all laughed.

The latest statistics I have show the WHO has recorded about 22,000 cases of A/H1N1 influenza around the world, with 125 deaths. So the death rate is about 0.5% of those infected.

With the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) situation in 2003, there were only about 8,100 cases recorded world-wide, but 775 deaths. The death rate then was 9.5% of those infected.

Bit of a difference between those two outbreaks.

So, there are pandemics, and there are PANDEMICS (as in pandemics that count).

Indeed, the WHO itself seems to have come to the same conclusion. It's thinking about reporting a "severity assessment" with any change of pandemic level alert.

Hey; have those people been reading my mind (or my blog)?

SWINE 'FLU, BUT THIS IS WEIRD.

So, let's get this straight.

1. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), when there is "efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission" of an influenza outbreak. That is a Level 6 problem -- a full-blown Pandemic.

2. According to the WHO's most recent update, On June 1, there area bout 17,500 cases of A/H1N1 flu internationally, with 115 deaths. That's level 6, technically.

3. Somehow, though, I think there's something wrong with the mathematic model the WHO is using to predict and declare pandemic situations. Level 6 should mean that people are dying like flies caught in a brush fire. But that's not happening.

P.S.: Just don't go on any Australian cruise ships for a while.

IF SWINE DROVE, IT WOULD BE WORSE THAN IF SWINE 'FLU

Last year in the United States, about 37,300 people died in traffic accidents.

So far this year, two people in the US have died of current variety of H1N1 influenza.

So, how many people have stopped driving because of all those traffic deaths? Hands up please.

That 37,300 is a drop of about 9% from the year before. The decrease is largely attributed to the fact that people are using their seat belts more. Or, simply, more people are taking reasonable precautions when driving.

In 'flu time, reasonable precautions mean washing your hands frequently, and using disposable tissues for blowing your nose, etc.

Which is why this ol' Bear is going about life as usual. But being just a bit more careful, especially washing my paws when I come in from shopping (or whatever).