I was at a meeting of our health region's ethics committee this week, and guess what got mentioned? Yup; A/H1N1 Influenza.
I raised with my colleagues the potential problem with the World Health Organization's mathematical model of influenza prediction. One of my colleagues, a physician (who shall remain nameless), said perhaps the mathematical model is "only for pandemics that count." At which we all laughed.
The latest statistics I have show the WHO has recorded about 22,000 cases of A/H1N1 influenza around the world, with 125 deaths. So the death rate is about 0.5% of those infected.
With the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) situation in 2003, there were only about 8,100 cases recorded world-wide, but 775 deaths. The death rate then was 9.5% of those infected.
Bit of a difference between those two outbreaks.
So, there are pandemics, and there are PANDEMICS (as in pandemics that count).
Indeed, the WHO itself seems to have come to the same conclusion. It's thinking about reporting a "severity assessment" with any change of pandemic level alert.
Hey; have those people been reading my mind (or my blog)?
Saturday, 6 June 2009
3 comments:
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That’s very true …
ReplyDeleteAnd some people it seems to me that get confused or get lost in means and never reach the goal …
Umm this is an alarming situation we are in …
Looks like there is no end in mysterious diseases that spread around …
That's an excellent and somehow comforting analysis. I don't know... There seems to be some kind of market interest behind the diseases that the Press chooses to make a breakthrough or to keep quiet about. Could I be wrong?
ReplyDelete® deeps and Sylvia -- I'm so sorry to be late in
ReplyDeletea) welcome you to this modest little blog, and
b) express my appreciation for the ideas you have shared.
I think more recent developments (see more recent posts) have given us clearer insights.
There is a big international push for a vaccine, and all kinds of businesses are trying to get in on the action. But we need to be sure that the vaccine is effective and safe, and that takes testing, which takes time.
My best guess: watch for a vaccine around Christmas. Also, watch for the second (and deadliest) of the three normal waves of the flu to hit in September.